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Gut:中国胃癌高危人群风险预测模型研究

2019-04-30 MedSci MedSci原创

在中国胃癌高风险人群中,新预测规则在识别高风险人群中显示出良好的表现,未来的研究需要在更大的人群中验证其有效性

癌(GC)风险预测中,镜检查前识别是有效的高危人群初步筛选工具。

在一项全国性多中心横断面研究,40-80岁的,接受胃镜检查患者参与,胃镜检查前检测参与者胃蛋白酶原(PG)I、PGⅡ、胃泌素-17(G-17)和抗幽门螺杆菌IgG抗体浓度。符合条件的参与者(n=14929)被随机分配到推导和验证队列中,通过单变量和多变量分析确定了GC的危险因素并确定了最佳预测规则。

新的GC风险预测规则包括7个变量(年龄、性别、PG I/II比值、G-17水平、幽门螺杆菌感染、腌制食品和油炸食品),得分范围为0-25分。低危组(≤11)、中危组(12-16)和高危组(17-25)的GC检出率分别为1.2%、4.4%和12.3%。对中危、高危人群进行胃镜检查时,70.8%的GC病例和70.3%的早期GC病例被检出。而根据低风险比例,内窥镜检查需求可降低66.7%。预测规则具有较好的判别性,曲线下面积为0.76。

在中国胃癌高风险人群中,新预测规则在识别高风险人群中显示出良好的表现,未来的研究需要在更大的人群中验证其有效性。

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    2019-04-30 CHANGE

    梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式,赞一个!

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