Circulation：心肌病患者心脏移植有了风险预测模型

2015-02-05 高晓方译医学论坛网

美国一项研究表明，在心肌病患者中风险模型可有效对移植失败风险加以分层，并有望成为器官分配政策的辅助工具。论文1月13日在线发表于《循环》(Circulation)。此项研究共纳入1861例心脏移植患儿，并依据心脏移植前诊断将分为先心病和心肌病人群。利用Logistic回归确定心脏移植前独立危险因素。构建移植后1年移植失败的风险模型。利用既往患者人群对模型加以验证。结果显示，心肌

美国一项研究表明，在心肌病患者中风险模型可有效对移植失败风险加以分层，并有望成为器官分配政策的辅助工具。论文1月13日在线发表于《循环》(Circulation)。

此项研究共纳入1861例心脏移植患儿，并依据心脏移植前诊断将分为先心病和心肌病人群。利用Logistic回归确定心脏移植前独立危险因素。构建移植后1年移植失败的风险模型。利用既往患者人群对模型加以验证。

结果显示，心肌病患者的独立危险因素包括早期移植、非白人种族、女性、诊断为非扩张型心肌病、尿素氮较高以及群体反应性抗体(PRA)>10%。在验证人群中受体体征风险模型具有良好的准确性，预测和实际生存率分别为97.5%和95.3%(C统计值0.73)。

先心病患者的独立危险因素为非白人种族、Fontan手术史、呼吸机依赖、尿素氮较高、PRA>10%和体表面积较小。风险模型准确度较低，预测和实际生存率分别为86.6%和92.4%(C统计值0.63)。

原始出处：

Schumacher KR1, Almond C2, Singh TP2, Kirk R3, Spicer R4, Hoffman TM5, Hsu D6, Naftel DC7, Pruitt E7, Zamberlan M8, Canter CE9, Gajarski RJ8; on behalf of the PHTS Study Group Investigators.Predicting Graft Loss by 1-Year in Pediatric Heart Transplant Candidates: An Analysis of the PHTS Database.Circulation. 2015 Jan 13. pii: CIRCULATIONAHA.114.009120. [Epub ahead of print]

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2015-02-17 午夜星河

明白

116 0
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2015-02-17 chinayinhan

已阅

125 0
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2015-02-16 windmilL1989

已阅

162 0
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2015-02-15 午夜星河

明白了

109 0
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2015-02-07 维他命

#预测模型#

81 0
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2015-02-07 12498ebem21暂无昵称

#风险预测#

99 0
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2015-02-07 ms9203727104890838

#风险预测模型#

88 0
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2015-02-07 爆笑小医

#肌病#

57 0

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