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如何采用医疗数据洞察和预测医疗成本

2016-07-17 MedSci MedSci原创

医疗数据
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Intetix Foundation由从事数据科学、非营利组织和公共政策研究的中国学者发起成立，致力于通过数据科学改善人类社会和自然环境。通过联络、动员中美最顶尖的数据科学家和社会科学家，以及分布在全球的志愿者，我们创造性地践行着我们的使命：为美好生活洞见数据价值。原作者：Dimitris Bertsimas；Michael A. Kane；J. Christian Kryder；Ru

Intetix Foundation由从事数据科学、非营利组织和公共政策研究的中国学者发起成立，致力于通过数据科学改善人类社会和自然环境。通过联络、动员中美最顶尖的数据科学家和社会科学家，以及分布在全球的志愿者，我们创造性地践行着我们的使命：为美好生活洞见数据价值。原作者：Dimitris Bertsimas；Michael A. Kane；J. Christian Kryder；Rudra Pandey；Santosh Vempala；Grant Wang 1.简介 医疗成本的不断上升是当今最紧迫的世界性问题之一。因此，准确预测相关费用是解决这一问题的关键性第一步。自上世纪80年代以来，基于（医疗保险）运用启发式规则和回归方法得到的索赔数据来搭建预测模型的研究就已经不断进行。然而，这些方法都没有得到适当的验证而且这些方法的使用规则并没有明确。我们利用分类树和聚类算法等现代数据挖掘方法，对超过八十万位投保人的索赔数据进行历时超三年的跟踪，然后根据头两年的医疗和成本数据，在第三年时提供严格的医疗成本验证预测。我们使用来自超过二十万名成员不可见（样本外）的数据，来量化我们预测的精度。关键结

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  1. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93782, encodeId=db9293e826a, content=医疗成本很重要！, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=147, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=93f31631454, createdName=1dd8c52fm63(暂无匿称), createdTime=Wed Jul 20 11:44:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-20, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1591593, encodeId=c2c01591593c2, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=85213500260' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#医疗数据#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=67, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=35002, encryptionId=85213500260, topicName=医疗数据)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=eded17951306, createdName=yzh405, createdTime=Tue Jul 19 00:48:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-19, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93264, encodeId=fd55932648a, content=预测医疗成本，医疗数据很重要, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=119, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=/v1.0.0/img/user_icon.png, createdBy=a37a1710612, createdName=oo902, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 16:42:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93238, encodeId=d693932380c, content=值得探讨, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=118, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=http://cacheapi.medsci.cn/resource/upload/20151110/IMG5641A6F12C0732294.jpg, createdBy=2f901662448, createdName=乐奕11, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 13:13:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93225, encodeId=65be932252f, content=思考非常有深度，也非常全面，这次的医疗大数据好好进行研究, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=113, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=c4a5105539, createdName=lovetcm, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 10:09:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2016-07-20 1dd8c52fm63(暂无匿称)

    医疗成本很重要！

    0

  2. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93782, encodeId=db9293e826a, content=医疗成本很重要！, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=147, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=93f31631454, createdName=1dd8c52fm63(暂无匿称), createdTime=Wed Jul 20 11:44:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-20, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1591593, encodeId=c2c01591593c2, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=85213500260' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#医疗数据#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=67, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=35002, encryptionId=85213500260, topicName=医疗数据)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=eded17951306, createdName=yzh405, createdTime=Tue Jul 19 00:48:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-19, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93264, encodeId=fd55932648a, content=预测医疗成本，医疗数据很重要, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=119, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=/v1.0.0/img/user_icon.png, createdBy=a37a1710612, createdName=oo902, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 16:42:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93238, encodeId=d693932380c, content=值得探讨, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=118, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=http://cacheapi.medsci.cn/resource/upload/20151110/IMG5641A6F12C0732294.jpg, createdBy=2f901662448, createdName=乐奕11, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 13:13:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93225, encodeId=65be932252f, content=思考非常有深度，也非常全面，这次的医疗大数据好好进行研究, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=113, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=c4a5105539, createdName=lovetcm, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 10:09:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2016-07-19 yzh405

    #医疗数据#

    0

  3. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93782, encodeId=db9293e826a, content=医疗成本很重要！, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=147, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=93f31631454, createdName=1dd8c52fm63(暂无匿称), createdTime=Wed Jul 20 11:44:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-20, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1591593, encodeId=c2c01591593c2, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=85213500260' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#医疗数据#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=67, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=35002, encryptionId=85213500260, topicName=医疗数据)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=eded17951306, createdName=yzh405, createdTime=Tue Jul 19 00:48:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-19, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93264, encodeId=fd55932648a, content=预测医疗成本，医疗数据很重要, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=119, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=/v1.0.0/img/user_icon.png, createdBy=a37a1710612, createdName=oo902, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 16:42:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93238, encodeId=d693932380c, content=值得探讨, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=118, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=http://cacheapi.medsci.cn/resource/upload/20151110/IMG5641A6F12C0732294.jpg, createdBy=2f901662448, createdName=乐奕11, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 13:13:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93225, encodeId=65be932252f, content=思考非常有深度，也非常全面，这次的医疗大数据好好进行研究, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=113, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=c4a5105539, createdName=lovetcm, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 10:09:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2016-07-17 oo902

    预测医疗成本，医疗数据很重要

    0

  4. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93782, encodeId=db9293e826a, content=医疗成本很重要！, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=147, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=93f31631454, createdName=1dd8c52fm63(暂无匿称), createdTime=Wed Jul 20 11:44:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-20, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1591593, encodeId=c2c01591593c2, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=85213500260' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#医疗数据#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=67, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=35002, encryptionId=85213500260, topicName=医疗数据)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=eded17951306, createdName=yzh405, createdTime=Tue Jul 19 00:48:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-19, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93264, encodeId=fd55932648a, content=预测医疗成本，医疗数据很重要, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=119, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=/v1.0.0/img/user_icon.png, createdBy=a37a1710612, createdName=oo902, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 16:42:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93238, encodeId=d693932380c, content=值得探讨, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=118, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=http://cacheapi.medsci.cn/resource/upload/20151110/IMG5641A6F12C0732294.jpg, createdBy=2f901662448, createdName=乐奕11, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 13:13:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93225, encodeId=65be932252f, content=思考非常有深度，也非常全面，这次的医疗大数据好好进行研究, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=113, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=c4a5105539, createdName=lovetcm, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 10:09:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2016-07-17 乐奕11

    值得探讨

    0

  5. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93782, encodeId=db9293e826a, content=医疗成本很重要！, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=147, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=93f31631454, createdName=1dd8c52fm63(暂无匿称), createdTime=Wed Jul 20 11:44:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-20, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1591593, encodeId=c2c01591593c2, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=85213500260' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#医疗数据#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=67, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=35002, encryptionId=85213500260, topicName=医疗数据)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=eded17951306, createdName=yzh405, createdTime=Tue Jul 19 00:48:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-19, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93264, encodeId=fd55932648a, content=预测医疗成本，医疗数据很重要, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=119, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=/v1.0.0/img/user_icon.png, createdBy=a37a1710612, createdName=oo902, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 16:42:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93238, encodeId=d693932380c, content=值得探讨, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=118, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=http://cacheapi.medsci.cn/resource/upload/20151110/IMG5641A6F12C0732294.jpg, createdBy=2f901662448, createdName=乐奕11, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 13:13:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=93225, encodeId=65be932252f, content=思考非常有深度，也非常全面，这次的医疗大数据好好进行研究, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=113, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=c4a5105539, createdName=lovetcm, createdTime=Sun Jul 17 10:09:00 CST 2016, time=2016-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2016-07-17 lovetcm

    思考非常有深度，也非常全面，这次的医疗大数据好好进行研究

    0

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