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中美贸易战对医药行业影响:医疗设备、器械、IVD和原料药

2019-05-14 佚名 医库

从2018年初至今,仅一年多时间,中美贸易争端经历了发起、升级、谈判、再起、激化、休战、重启多个阶段,最新进展是,2019年5月5日,特朗普宣布自5月10日起将中国价值2000亿美元的商品关税从10%提升至25%。2019年5月13日,中国国务院关税税则委员会宣布对原产于美国的部分进口商品提高加征5%~25%的关税。其实,随着中国成为世界第二大经济体,中美关系进入新阶段,“修昔底德陷阱”成为中

从2018年初至今,仅一年多时间,中美贸易争端经历了发起、升级、谈判、再起、激化、休战、重启多个阶段,最新进展是,2019年5月5日,特朗普宣布自5月10日起将中国价值2000亿美元的商品关税从10%提升至25%。2019年5月13日,中国国务院关税税则委员会宣布对原产于美国的部分进口商品提高加征5%~25%的关税。

其实,随着中国成为世界第二大经济体,中美关系进入新阶段,“修昔底德陷阱”成为中美关系中的一个常见话语。“修昔底德陷阱”命题的核心是指一个新崛起的大国必然要挑战现存大国,而现存大国也必然会回应这种威胁,两边发生剧烈冲突。历史上15次大国崛起摩擦,11次导致战争,剩下的没导致战争也是激烈对抗。

实际上,中美之间的关系已经发生了根本性的变化,中美现在其实是准战争状态,敌对或者至少是大力遏制的关系,很多国内精英还在想当然!不仅限于贸易领域,还将扩展到全社会各行业、各个产业,例如:经济、金融、科技、外交、区域、国际关系甚至是大规模限制中国留学生!

美国麻省理工学院(MIT)今年提前录取的707名新生里,没有一名中国高中毕业生,而史丹佛大学公布的面试学生来源地有台湾及香港,没有中国大陆。其实来自中国的顶尖高中毕业生,以往从未缺席MIT提前录取名单,但今年“集体失利”。虽然这里说的仅是提前录取,但是今年的early bird录取率和以往大不相同了。史丹佛未来一年将在全球50多个国家地区展开与毕业校友的面试,其中包括台湾和香港,但是没有中国大陆,也就是今年申请史丹佛的中国大陆学生失去面试机会。

上周,在特朗普推动下,支持台湾的决议案在众议院以414票对0票通过,另一项议案“2019年台湾保证法”也在众议院全票通过,法案支持提升台湾的防卫能力、加强美台经济合作等。历史上众议院历来是分歧较多,效率相对较低的,全票通过是比较罕见的,一般的提案总有人会投反对或者弃权票,但是这次全票通过显示了美国民主和共和两党,哪怕是无党派人士在对台湾关系问题上的一致性,对中国的遏制达成全所未有的共识

同样,对于医药行业而言,中美双方在提高加征关税税率的同时,也会设置更多的贸易壁垒,包括知识产权,转让,市场,准入,价格等等。下面我们来看在中美贸易战升级下,医药细分领域和行业整体。

一、医疗设备和器械

从出口数据来看,中国高端医疗设备和器械极少出口到美国,主要以中低端医疗器械为主,例如按摩保健器具、医用耗材敷料。在进口方面,目前我国医疗器械进口则以高端产品为主,类似核磁共振、CT等高端医疗设备均被国外品牌所占据,还有骨科与心内科的高值耗材等。这些产品的技术含量和附加值都比较高,不易研发制造,国内产品与进口产品在安全性和有效性上仍存在一定差距。

我国可能部分对美进口医疗设备和器械加征25%关税,将加速国内企业在部分高端设备和器械领域的进口替代,关税的加征对这部分公司来说,将带来一定的利好,例如以CT等影像设备研发制造为主要业务的东软医疗和联影医疗。医疗器械与医疗设备商,乐普医疗和迈瑞医疗等。

市场窗口已经向这类内资企业打开。但是如果企业没有建立完善研发、质控体系,国内一、二线城市大医院只能被迫用更高的价格采购进口品牌,成本最终由消费者承担。国产产品只能针对二三线市场进行价格战,通过经销商的高空间和中间环节费用抢占市场。产品的效果、安全、质量风险最终还是转嫁由消费者。

可见,在贸易战中,作为产业链末端的消费者都是成本上升和风险承担的最终兜底者。

二、体外诊断IVD

和高端医疗设备和器械相同,IVD国内市场部分被国外品牌主导。体外诊断市场方面由于国际市场发展较早,国际品牌在技术、品牌、产品质量等方面拥有明显优势。目前我国体外诊断市场主要被国外品牌主导,尤其在三甲医院高端市场中处于垄断地位,价格是国内同类产品的1~5倍。国内企业由于行业起步相对较晚,在技术、规模、产品质量等方面与国际型巨头仍存在一定差距,主要布局中低端市场,用户集中在市级医院和基层医院。

中美贸易战升级关税加码,对美资或者原产地美国的产品和试剂的代理商和厂家来说是个巨大的坏消息,因为这让他们增加最高达25%的税率费用。如果用最简单的办法涨价,将费用转嫁到消费者身上,很可能失去有着巨大潜力的中国市场。

但是,对于对相当一部分IVD国产品牌来说就是个非常利好的消息。当进口品牌的价格优势被遏制,对进口品牌来说,要么涨价;要么和国产企业合作生产,通过品牌本土化的办法抢占中国市场。这就给了大批优秀的国产包括合资IVD企业一个窗口机会。在进口品牌本土化的过程中,通过和他们合作,引进先进的国外技术和资源,能大大加快国产企业前进的步伐,并通过部分优势产品不断涉足高端市场。目前国内共有600家以上的企业从事体外诊断业务,龙头企业是迈瑞医疗、厦门迈新,科华生物、达安基因等。

三、原料药

我国原料药出口龙头企业多在一个或数个细分产品领域占据领先地位。在1.1万家经营原料药出口业务企业中,石药集团、华北制药、东北药、普洛药业、华海药业、创诺医药、联邦制药、浙江医药、亿帆医药、齐鲁制药、科伦药业、江西天新、浙江化工、新华制药等位居龙头。

虽然美国对原料药的征税名单包含了多个品类,但整体规模不大,对国内企业而言似乎压力不明显。反过来看,美国要提高关税,对自身的影响可能更大些。由于在美国原料药生产成本较高,美国本土药企生产的制剂,需要的原料药主要依赖中国进口。这无疑抬高了它们本土药企的生产成本,同时会影响到药品的价格,进而有可能会增加美国医保负担。但是这可能会带来另一个长期的影响,就是加速产业链转移,可能会向其他地区进行规模化布局,这样的话,我们原料药将会出现巨大的产能过剩,以抗生素和维生素为例,如果有一半的产能被迫在国内消化的话,将会引发市场巨大的波动,甚至国内价跌,国际大涨,但是出口受限的“冰火两重天”格局!

整体来说对原料药行业利空,同时我们还有一部分原料药(精细化工)产品需要进口,将会提升药企的生产成本,同时供应带来不确定性!

中美已经进入超级遏制与循环遏制的阶段,可能并非简单贸易战能概括,整个医药产业链可能都将进行深度博弈与产业链转移。

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    2019-05-16 yourmama
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    2019-05-16 cathymary
  4. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=2011736, encodeId=9e362011e3658, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=83fa2238809' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#中美贸易战#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=65, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=22388, encryptionId=83fa2238809, topicName=中美贸易战)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=cb3a261, createdName=liuxiaona, createdTime=Mon Jun 17 12:13:00 CST 2019, time=2019-06-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1367981, encodeId=b025136e98111, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=e61310130f5' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#IVD#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=82, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=10130, encryptionId=e61310130f5, topicName=IVD)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=a885259, createdName=yourmama, createdTime=Thu May 16 08:13:00 CST 2019, time=2019-05-16, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1409836, encodeId=b36614098369a, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=2c1c35262a9' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#医药#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=68, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=35262, encryptionId=2c1c35262a9, topicName=医药)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=36f62754598, createdName=cathymary, createdTime=Thu May 16 08:13:00 CST 2019, time=2019-05-16, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1457881, encodeId=cef0145e88186, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=1aa835156b1' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#医疗设备#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=71, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=35156, encryptionId=1aa835156b1, topicName=医疗设备)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=26b25994816, createdName=zsyan, createdTime=Thu May 16 08:13:00 CST 2019, time=2019-05-16, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1497141, encodeId=c7fd149e141b1, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=30003e186fa' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#原料药#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=66, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=37186, encryptionId=30003e186fa, topicName=原料药)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=8d4d9304903, createdName=slcumt, createdTime=Thu May 16 08:13:00 CST 2019, time=2019-05-16, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1605002, encodeId=2dda1605002de, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=a631353e6e6' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#医药行业#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=84, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=35376, encryptionId=a631353e6e6, topicName=医药行业)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=adbd19305036, createdName=fmq_28614559, createdTime=Thu May 16 08:13:00 CST 2019, time=2019-05-16, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
  5. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=2011736, encodeId=9e362011e3658, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=83fa2238809' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#中美贸易战#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=65, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=22388, encryptionId=83fa2238809, topicName=中美贸易战)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=cb3a261, createdName=liuxiaona, createdTime=Mon Jun 17 12:13:00 CST 2019, time=2019-06-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1367981, encodeId=b025136e98111, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=e61310130f5' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#IVD#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=82, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=10130, encryptionId=e61310130f5, topicName=IVD)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=a885259, createdName=yourmama, createdTime=Thu May 16 08:13:00 CST 2019, time=2019-05-16, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1409836, encodeId=b36614098369a, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=2c1c35262a9' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#医药#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=68, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=35262, encryptionId=2c1c35262a9, topicName=医药)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=36f62754598, createdName=cathymary, createdTime=Thu May 16 08:13:00 CST 2019, time=2019-05-16, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1457881, encodeId=cef0145e88186, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=1aa835156b1' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#医疗设备#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=71, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=35156, encryptionId=1aa835156b1, topicName=医疗设备)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=26b25994816, createdName=zsyan, createdTime=Thu May 16 08:13:00 CST 2019, time=2019-05-16, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1497141, encodeId=c7fd149e141b1, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=30003e186fa' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#原料药#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=66, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=37186, encryptionId=30003e186fa, topicName=原料药)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=8d4d9304903, createdName=slcumt, createdTime=Thu May 16 08:13:00 CST 2019, time=2019-05-16, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1605002, encodeId=2dda1605002de, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=a631353e6e6' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#医药行业#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=84, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=35376, encryptionId=a631353e6e6, topicName=医药行业)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=adbd19305036, createdName=fmq_28614559, createdTime=Thu May 16 08:13:00 CST 2019, time=2019-05-16, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2019-05-16 slcumt
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