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Science:只要活得够长,衰老就追不上你!科学家发现,105 岁死亡风险即进入平台期,人类寿命极限远比我们想得更长

2018-06-30 代丝雨 奇点网

《科学》杂志上的一项最新研究可能为生命带来一个新的解释。意大利研究者分析了近四千名 105 岁以上“超级老人”的生命轨迹,发现了一项令人惊讶的事实——本以为随着年龄呈指数增长的死亡风险,竟然在 80 岁以后开始减缓增长,到了 105 岁左右更是进入了平台期 [1]!这也就意味着,从 105 岁活到 106 岁,和从 112 岁活到 113 岁,概率是完全相等的!

生与死是永恒的话题。

从出生开始,我们就面临着死亡的威胁,随着年龄的增长,死亡风险越来越高,死神的脚步也越来越近,科学家用尽手段寻找永生的秘密,但是人类终究难逃死亡一吻。

然而《科学》杂志上的一项最新研究可能为生命带来一个新的解释。意大利研究者分析了近四千名 105 岁以上“超级老人”的生命轨迹,发现了一项令人惊讶的事实——本以为随着年龄呈指数增长的死亡风险,竟然在 80 岁以后开始减缓增长,到了 105 岁左右更是进入了平台期 [1]!这也就意味着,从 105 岁活到 106 岁,和从 112 岁活到 113 岁,概率是完全相等的!

用《科学》配发评论中一句不太严谨的描述来说,活到 105 岁以上,人好像就停止衰老了 !


Rosa Rein 活到了 112 岁

1825 年,著名数学家 Benjamin Gompertz 提出了以他自己名字命名的 Gompertz 死亡率定律。简单来说,在较为单纯的、受保护的环境中,与年龄无关的死因可以忽略的情况下,人的死亡风险是一个随着年龄呈指数增长的函数。

一般来说,人出生之后,在婴儿期迎来一次死亡高潮;当青春期过去,个体走向性成熟,此时死亡风险便稳定增长。在 Gompertz 死亡定律下,死亡风险差不多每 8 年就会翻一番。


2003 年美国各年龄段人类死亡风险

但是到了 20 世纪 90 年代,随着人口数据的增加、人类平均寿命的延长,研究者们发现,在 80 以上的高寿人群中,Gompertz 定律似乎并不那么完美无缺了,他们的死亡风险增长速度不再一个劲儿地往上冲,而是与老人们的生活一样慢了下来,甚至在比较极限的情况下死亡风险会达到一个瓶颈。

这个发现与在其他物种,例如果蝇、线虫和酵母中的发现一致。

另一方面,其他的一些研究却得到了截然相反的,死亡风险的指数上升直到 110 岁仍旧持续存在。

这就涉及到了一个问题:死亡风险的升高有极限吗?人类的寿命有极限吗?


最长寿的人,Jeanne Calment

目前长寿的记录保持者是一位名为 Jeanne Calment 的法国女性,她 1875 年出生,十几岁的时候,梵高还光顾过她父亲所开的商店。当 1997 年去世,她足足活了 122 年 164 天,两次刷新了自己的记录。

不过长寿的人本身就少,10 万名女性中仅有两人能够活到 110 岁,男性的概率则是两百万分之一,这就使得研究长寿变成了一件很困难的事情。

在这方面,意大利有着得天独厚的优势。意大利本身就是仅次于日本的长寿国家,对国民健康数据的统计也十分的完善。马克斯普朗克研究所曾牵头组建国际长寿数据库(IDL),本次研究使用到的就是其中由意大利国家统计学会(ISTAT)提供的部分。

研究纳入了 1836 年 -1910 年出生的 3836 位老人,年龄均在 105 岁以上。这部分数据可以说是目前最好、最清晰的长寿人群数据了,在 2009 年到 2015 年间具有完整的随访记录,避免了死亡模式的误导;出生证明和死亡证明则保证了年龄统计的准确;这些人中只有不到 4% 出生于海外,绝大多数人都是土生土长的意大利人。


从 80 岁开始,死亡风险增长变缓,在 105 岁进入平台期

从分析结果不难看出,65 岁到 80 岁的时候,真实死亡率与 Gompertz 定律模拟出的死亡风险是基本符合的。但是 80 岁以后,真实死亡率逐渐偏离了模型的轨迹,增长速度变缓;到 105 岁左右,死亡风险便已停滞在 60% 左右了!

同时,从数据中我们也能够看到,随着出生年龄的临近,有越来越多的人能够活到 105 岁,他们在特定年龄的死亡风险也有所降低。

这或许意味着,重复 Calment 的奇迹,只要运气足够好!


生得越晚,活得长的人越多

本项研究的作者之一,加州大学伯克利分校的统计学家 Kennth Wachter 认为,“这是有力的证据,如果人类寿命有极限,那么我们还没有接近它。”确实,按照死亡风险瓶颈为 50% 计算,从 105 活到 122 岁的概率还不足十万分之一——前提是先活到 105 岁。

阿尔伯特爱因斯坦医学院的研究者 Milholland 则反对这项研究。他于 2016 年在《自然》杂志上发表了一篇研究成果,根据他的观点,人类寿命极限自上个世纪便没有增加了。他认为,人类寿命极限应当为 115 岁,Calment 只是个单纯的意外。而这篇论文,涉及的人数少、时间短,分析方法也不够全面。

事实是,随着进化,人类的寿命确实越来越长。旧石器时代的人们平均寿命只有 33 岁,而 2014 年世界的平均水平已经达到 71.5 岁了,人类的寿命极限变得更长一些也并不奇怪。

那么,既然 105 岁以后死亡风险就不再涨了,问题来了,咋活到 105 岁呢?

原始出处:

Elisabetta Barbi, Francesco Lagona, Marco Marsili, et al. The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers. Science  29 Jun 2018: Vol. 360, Issue 6396, pp. 1459-1461, DOI: 10.1126/science.aat3119.

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  4. 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    2018-07-02 三生有幸9135

    看看

    0

  5. 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GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=328168, encodeId=c2913281685d, content=学习并分享!!, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=104, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=https://img.medsci.cn/20200816/e4675a86ea694f12b82202b320dc2654/12f6b900498349e994ce8f516a584d6a.jpg, createdBy=09431951290, createdName=大爰, createdTime=Sat Jun 30 09:29:44 CST 2018, time=2018-06-30, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2018-07-01 jichang
  7. 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    2018-06-30 flysky120

    但是真的很少人能活到

    0

  8. 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    2018-06-30 lyh994

    这真是个好消息啊

    0

  9. 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GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=328168, encodeId=c2913281685d, content=学习并分享!!, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=104, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=https://img.medsci.cn/20200816/e4675a86ea694f12b82202b320dc2654/12f6b900498349e994ce8f516a584d6a.jpg, createdBy=09431951290, createdName=大爰, createdTime=Sat Jun 30 09:29:44 CST 2018, time=2018-06-30, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2018-06-30 明月清辉

    谢谢分享.学习了

    0

  10. 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    2018-06-30 大爰

    学习并分享!!

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