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Ann Rheum Dis:痛风合并症患者痛风急性发作住院的预测模型

2019-12-07 xiangting MedSci原创

这项研究提出了痛风合并症患者住院急性发作的9个预测指标。这些预测指标简单、实用,并得到现有临床知识的支持。

住院治疗是痛风患者急性发作的危险因素。但是,住院患者痛风急性发作的预测因素尚不清楚。这项研究目的是建立痛风合并症患者住院痛风急性发作的预测模型。

研究人员使用来自2017年新西兰惠灵顿、奥泰罗阿住院的痛风合并症患者回顾性队列的研究数据。为了建立预测模型,研究使用了三种方法:(A临床知识驱动模型,(B)统计驱动模型和(C)决策树模型。根据实用性和性能选择最终的模型,然后使用引导程序进行验证。

该队列包括625例住院的痛风合并症患者,其中87例住院期间出现痛风急性发作。模型A产生了9个住院痛风急性发作的预测因子,而模型BC分别产生了15个和5个预测因子。选择模型A是因为其简易性及出色的C统计量(0.82)和校准斜率(0.93)。最终的9项预测因子是入院前尿酸盐>0.36mmol/L、痛风结节、入院前无降尿酸治疗(ULT)、入院前无痛风预防治疗、急性肾损伤、手术、开始或增加痛风预防治疗、发作前调整ULT和利尿剂。最终模型的引导验证显示出适当的C统计量和校准斜率(分别为0.800.78)。

这项研究提出了痛风合并症患者住院急性发作的9个预测指标。这些预测指标简单、实用,并得到现有临床知识的支持。

原始出处:

Kanon Jatuworapruk. Development of a prediction model for inpatient gout flares in people with comorbid gout. Ann Rheum Dis. 06 December 2019.

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    2019-12-07 CHANGE

    梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式,赞一个!

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