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骨质疏松症患者骨折风险 一算可知

2011-03-25 MedSci原创 MedSci原创

       图 骨折风险计算法可以较好地预测患者骨折风险   加拿大学者的一项研究表明,在一组具有代表性的加拿大人群中,达博诺模图(编者注:一种表示多个变量间函数关系的计算图表)具有较好的骨折风险预测能力。论文2010年12月20日在线发表于《加拿大医学会杂志》(CMAJ)。   此项研究在达博骨质疏松流行病学研究的参与者中评估了上述诺模图的鉴别和校准能力。研究对象年龄在55~9

    

  图 骨折风险计算法可以较好地预测患者骨折风险

  加拿大学者的一项研究表明,在一组具有代表性的加拿大人群中,达博诺模图(编者注:一种表示多个变量间函数关系的计算图表)具有较好的骨折风险预测能力。论文2010年12月20日在线发表于《加拿大医学会杂志》(CMAJ)。

  此项研究在达博骨质疏松流行病学研究的参与者中评估了上述诺模图的鉴别和校准能力。研究对象年龄在55~95岁之间。结果显示,4152例女性中共出现583例骨折,平均随访时间为8.6年;1606例男性中共出现116例骨折,平均随访时间为8.3年。年龄增长、骨密度较低、既往骨折和跌倒与骨折风险增加相关。对于低创伤骨折而言,在女性和男性中诺模图预测骨折风险与骨折事件的一致性分别为0.69和0.70;对于髋部骨折,女性和男性中诺模图预测骨折风险与骨折事件的一致性分别为0.80和0.85。就男性而言,诺模图预测能力优于现行加拿大指南。

  专家评论:骨折风险计算器的应用时代是否已来临?

  新西兰奥克兰大学 鲍乐德(Bolland)博士

  绝经后女性和老年男性的骨质疏松性骨折发生率分别为30%~50%和10%~20%。预防骨质疏松性骨折是医疗保健的重要组成部分,而这有赖于对可能发生骨折的个体进行准确预测。预测模型在进入临床应用之前必须在不同人群中加以验证,鉴别和校准因素尤为关键。骨折绝对风险计算器在理论和实践上均优于早期预测系统,并且可用于显示随年龄增加及骨密度降低的骨折绝对风险变化,因此其有可能优于现行推荐指南。

  然而,该计算器亦具有局限之处,例如其预测能力与其他风险计算器相似,并且未能提供风险估计的可信区间。在考虑到其局限性的情况下,骨折绝对风险计算器是骨折预测方面的一项重要进展,并且应当在临床实践中加以应用。

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    2011-07-30 dasia

    Yo, that's what's up truthuflly.

    0

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    2011-03-27 Eleven17
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